Widely Scattered Showers Yesterday

Clouds over the Rincons at about 5:00 am MST this morning, showing just a bit of pre-sunrise color.

There were widely scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area yesterday late afternoon and evening. Note that six ALERT sites recorded rainfall (above for 24-hours ending 6:30 am), with heaviest shower occurring near Green Valley

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala -above - for 24-hours ending at 0703 UTC this morning) shows small clusters of storms with some activity continuing after midnight. There was thunder here and winds of 20 to 30 mph; the airport had thunder from 6 to 10 pm but also no rain; while nearby DM had thunder with a gust to 44 mph at 9 pm, along with 0.01" of rain.

The trough at 500 mb had moved east of Tucson by 12 UTC, as per morning analysis below, so chances for more showers is at best very slight.

May 15th Outlooks

View at 5:00 am MST this morning, looking toward the Rincons and Redington Pass.

Outlooks (GEFS plumes above and GFS through 06 UTC May 31st below) hold out little hope for any rainfall through rest of the month. The three month outlook (from NWS CPC - second below) indicates warm and very dry conditions continuing for Arizona through July.

Yesterday's Storm Reports

 

Yesterday's preliminary storm reports (from SPC) plotted on the 1300 UTC Outlook.

Monday May Sixth

View of the Catalinas at 7:00 am MST this morning showing cloudless skies overhead.

The first full week of May is expected to be warm and dry. Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS are shown here for QPF (above), T (below) and wind (second below), with not much indicated for enire week. Remember that the temperature plumes for the airport have a cool bias - the NWS forecast high for today is 81F and 88F for tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday may be a bit breezy.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe thunderstorm outbreak today for parts of the Plains - see graphic and text below. Current soundings and upper-air charts can be found at the SPC webpage (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/).

May Day

View of the Catalinas a few minutes before 7:00 am MST this morning - air looks to have a bit of haze in it.

During April we only had rainfall here at the house on April 1st - some early morning showers, and then more during late afternoon/evening totaled 0.35".

 We have now been dry for 30 days and main question is: will we see any more rain before summer thunderstorm season begins in late June or early July? Long range forecasts (from WRF-GFS above and NWS CPC below) indicate that May will continue very dry.

Earth Day 2024

 

Light Sprinkles

Added comment - I forgot to make note of the wind gusts yesterday and will add here:

Numerous sites reported gusts of 45 to 50 mph yesterday. I found 5 sites with gusts over 50 mph in southeastern Arizona. Tucson reported gusts to 53 mph as did Empire ranch; Ft. Huachuca had 52 mph; Pioneer Airfield reported 60 mph, and Guthrie reported 67 mph. I estimate that we had gusts here at house in the 50 to 55 mph range. It was a cold, nasty wind.

Golden skies over the Catalinas at 6:00 am this Saturday morning.

There were light showers and sprinkles scattered around the metro area after midnight last night. The plots (above and below - from ALERT and MesoWest) show that showers mostly avoided the metro area and amounts were all 0.04" or less. It does not appear to have rained any here at the house.